Why the ONS Office of National Statistics and governments use of comparing the 5 year average to this years death rate is wrong.

Hi, I will add more info for now. Attaching some pseudo code and will explain later. This code is not correct and may not function correctly but is illustrative pseudo code.

This relates to the sarscov2 covid-19 pandemic. Ultimately, we can have the death rate being above the 5 year average but below 2 of the years meaning it probably isn't significant.

int yearofinterestDeathRate = 6 ;

struct observation = [{bool significant, decimal difference, int year}];

List<decimal> deathrates = new List<decimal>(){ 7,5,11,3.4,4};

List<observation> observations = new List<observation>();

for year = 0 to deathrates.Count - 1
{
var deathrate = deathrates.Elementat(year);

observation.Add(new observation(){signifant = deathrate > yearofinterestDeathRate ? true : false
, difference = abs(deathrate - yearofinterestDeathRate}
}
}

/*Now, how about we compare the average?*/
{ 7,5,11,3.4,4};
The average is 5.8. This means that 6 is above the 5 year average.
Now ask why choose 5 years? 

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